A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
